“Prediction is very difficult…”
“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” -Niels Bohr
A funny thing happened to me today on the way to my blog. I was perusing the usual articles about ‘The Future of Search,” trying to come up with a new way to make the same old predictions. It seems like you can’t swing a dead fish without hitting an article about Search in year 2010 or thereabouts. Just far enough away that no one can prove you right or wrong.
Hey, I predict that in the year 2020, Atlantic City will be an island. Now what? What do we do between now and then? You might rebut my prophecies in the comments section, but you cannot prove me wrong, not for another 13 years anyway, and by then I guarantee you everyone will be predicting the year 2025.
Well, I hate to break it to you, but the Emperor is as naked as a Jay bird.
The Semantic Web, Personalization, Artificial Intelligence (AI), intelligent machines, Natural Language Processing (NLP), Web 3.0, Wisdom of the Crowds, yadda yadda, have all been tossed about so much lately, they are starting to lose their ability to attract attention.
And if that wasn’t enough, bloggers (and you know who you are) are starting to joust with their predictions. “I would respectfully disagree with you on this…” is the chorus to this song. Since neither position can be proved or disproved for years, why not respectfully disagree?
I do it all the time.
But there was this one woman, “Lorisa,” a Premium Member over at SEOmoz who said,”There’s nothing magical or cutting-edge about improving results right as we speak, not 10 years from now.” Lorisa, are you free next Friday night?
At AltSearchEngines, when we speak of a totally new UI, we aren’t thinking about 2010, we’re thinking about now. In fact, two alternative search engines have already submitted demos for a new type of UI, and I am hard at work on mine. I approached my first choice vendor a month ago. We want to encourage a genuine competition for practical solutions to the “too many choices” paradox that we believe the Alts face, now, not in 2010.
Good grief! It may be too late by then! (Well, that’s my prediction…)
The “Google cycle” (e.g. buy one of the Top 100 Alts, fill that spot with #101. Result? Google +1, Alts -1. Rinse. Repeat.) is churning now and has been for some time. I may have been too soft spoken in my last post when I said that the Alts need to “Collaborate or Perish.”
I should have said, “Collaborate Now or Perish.” Just to give it that sense of urgency, don’t you know.
I’ve read a lot of posts lately that have the keywords “Search” and “Future” in them, but I’m going with Lorisa on this one. Bloggers, predictions are grand, and they sure use up a lot of my paper and ink, but - wait for it - what have you done for me lately?
September 11th, 2007 at 10:36 pm
Wow! Tough words, Mr K. Valuable words, but tough… I may have to respectfully disagree with you on some points, though!
Here’s where I’m right on board with you (and your new friend Lorisa): just because you make a prediction doesn’t mean you get to kick back and do nothing between now and 2010, or 2020, or whenever your prediction was for!
What I would say, though, is that the very act of attempting to predict the future has value — predictions about Atlantic City notwithstanding. Why do I say this? Because nothing happens without a vision.
The vision may be misguided; it may never come true; it may manifest in a way that is patently and profoundly different from how it was originally conceived. But the reason you are passionate right now about getting the alts to collaborate is that you have a vision for what they’re capable of. If you want to realize that vision, you have to start now — you know that, I know that, and Lorisa knows that. But the catalyst for starting now is the potential you see in the future.
What say you, my friend?
September 11th, 2007 at 11:06 pm
I appeal to my Higher Power! The Good Book says in James 2:20, “But are you willing to recognize,…that faith without works is useless?”
I was only intending to shine the spotlight on any blogger who publishes his or her vision, tries to get it on digg, and then moves on to post about something else.
At AltSearchEngines we don’t just moan about the plight of the alts, or dream wonderful dreams. Behind the scenes we are contacting vendors, soliciting demos, planning conferences, organizing competitions, and working to “make it so.”
Any blogger who is actively striving to make their vision *a reality* is A-OK in my book!
October 2nd, 2007 at 12:06 am
Just saw this, and boy, am I flattered to be quoted by you! I’ve been perusing your blog, and it’s fascinating. It’s good to know that lots of people are hard at work building a better mousetrap, er, search engine. Can’t wait to see what the future brings - whatever that might be!